| Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Malaria Risk
Willem J.M. Martens,1,2 Louis W. Niessen,1 Jan Rotmans,1,2 Theo H. Jetten,3 and Anthony J. McMichael4 1National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
2Department of Mathematics, University of Limburg, Maastricht, The Netherlands
3Department of Entomology, Wageningen Agricultural University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
4Department of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK Abstract
The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic ; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. Key words: climate change, disability-adjusted life years, integrated modeling approach, malaria. Environ Health Perspect 103:458-464 (1995) Address correspondence to W.J.M. Martens, Department of Mathematics, University of Limburg, PO Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands. We are grateful to many colleagues for their contributions which led to this work, in particular W. Takken and the team of the Global Dynamics and Sustainable Development Programme. This study was conducted under auspices of the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) , Bilthoven, The Netherlands, and the University of Limburg, Maastricht, The Netherlands, and was partially financially supported by the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change. Received 21 November 1994 ; accepted 20 January 1995.
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