| Late Lessons from Early Warnings: Toward Realism and Precaution with Endocrine-Disrupting Substances David Gee European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark Abstract
The histories of selected public and environmental hazards, from the first scientifically based early warnings about potential harm to the subsequent precautionary and preventive measures, have been reviewed by the European Environment Agency. This article relates the "late lessons" from these early warnings to the current debates on the application of the precautionary principle to the hazards posed by endocrine-disrupting substances (EDSs) . Here, I summarize some of the definitional and interpretative issues that arise. These issues include the contingent nature of knowledge ; the definitions of precaution, prevention, risk, uncertainty, and ignorance ; the use of differential levels of proof ; and the nature and main direction of the methodological and cultural biases within the environmental health sciences. It is argued that scientific methods need to reflect better the realities of multicausality, mixtures, timing of dose, and system dynamics, which characterize the exposures and impacts of EDSs. This improved science could provide a more robust basis for the wider and wise use of the precautionary principle in the assessment and management of the threats posed by EDSs. The evaluation of such scientific evidence requires assessments that also account for multicausal reality. Two of the often used, and sometimes misused, Bradford Hill "criteria," consistency and temporality, are critically reviewed in light of multicausality, thereby illustrating the need to review all of the criteria in light of 40 years of progress in science and policymaking. Key words: causality, early warnings, endocrine-disrupting substances, false negatives, ignorance, uncertainty, prevention, proof, surprises. Environ Health Perspect 114(suppl 1) : 152-160 (2006) . doi:10.1289/ehp.8134 available via http://dx.doi.org/ [Online 21 September 2005]
This article is part of the monograph "The Ecological Relevance of Chemically Induced Endocrine Disruption in Wildlife." Address correspondence to D. Gee, Kongens Nytorv 6, DK-1050, Copenhagen, Denmark. Telephone: 45 33 36 71 42. Fax: 45 33 36 71 28. E-mail: David.Gee@eea.eu.int The author thanks the European Environment Agency for the opportunity and time to develop the ideas expressed in this article, J. Bailar for his help in producing Table 4, and G. Boschetto and B. Nielsen for helping with the preparation of the article. Responsibility for the contents of the article lies solely with the author, and the views expressed are his and not those of the EEA or its Management Board. The author declares he has no competing financial interests. Received 16 March 2005 ; accepted 13 October 2005.
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