This paper was presented at the President's Cancer Panel
Conference on Avoidable Causes of Cancer held 7-8 April 1994 in Bethesda,
Maryland. Manuscript received: 9 March 1995; manuscript accepted: 24 March
1995.
The author gratefully acknowledges R. Munasinghe for his
assistance in preparation of the maps included in this paper.
Address correspondence to Dr. Robert D. Morris, Department
of Family and Community Medicine, Medical College of Wisconsin, 8701 Watertown
Plank Road, Milwaukee, WI 53226. Telephone: (414) 456-8382. Fax: (414)
266-8502. E-mail: rmorris@post.its.mcw.edu
Abbreviations: IARC, International Agency for Research
on Cancer; DDT, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane
This paper was presented at the President's Cancer Panel
Conference on Avoidable Causes of Cancer held 7-8 April 1994 in Bethesda,
Maryland. Manuscript received: 9 March 1995; manuscript accepted: 24 March
1995.
The author gratefully acknowledges R. Munasinghe for his
assistance in preparation of the maps included in this paper.
Address correspondence to Dr. Robert D. Morris, Department
of Family and Community Medicine, Medical College of Wisconsin, 8701 Watertown
Plank Road, Milwaukee, WI 53226. Telephone: (414) 456-8382. Fax: (414)
266-8502. E-mail: rmorris@post.its.mcw.edu
Abbreviations: IARC, International Agency for Research
on Cancer; DDT, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane
Introduction
Few things tie humans so directly to the natural environment as drinking-water.
The contamination of water is a direct reflection of the degree of contamination
of the environment. After flushing airborne pollutants from the skies, rainwater
literally washes over the entire human landscape before running into the
aquifers, streams, rivers, and lakes that supply our drinking-water. Any
and all of the chemicals generated by human activity can and will find their
way into water supplies. Evaluating possible links between drinking-water
and cancer means identifying those chemicals that appear in enough water
supplies at sufficient concentrations to pose a substantial attributable
cancer risk.
Contaminants may enter water supplies at many points before reaching
the tap. The types and quantities of carcinogens present in drinking-water
at the point of consumption may result from contamination of the source
water, arise as a consequence of treatment processes, or enter as the water
is conveyed to the user. Many different carcinogens may contaminate source
waters, but they usually exist in drinking-water at low concentrations.
On the other hand, chemicals that enter drinking-water during the course
of water treatment are limited in number, but these chemicals appear in
drinking-water supplies with greater frequency than most source water contaminants.
Finally, the compounds contained in the pipes, joints, and fixtures of the
water distribution system may contaminant treated water on its way to the
consumer. Similarities in the construction of drinking-water distribution
systems mean that any carcinogen entering through this pathway may be widespread
and can pose substantial attributable risks of cancer. The following discussion
reviews the attributable risks for contaminants entering at each of these
points. Data gaps are identified and emerging areas of concern are discussed.
Source Water Contaminants
Except for naturally occurring minerals such as calcium carbonate, contaminants
that enter the water supply through the source water generally occur at
low concentration levels. Source water contaminants of concern either are
sufficiently potent carcinogens to pose risks at extremely low concentrations
or cause local contamination at high concentrations. The source-water contaminants
that have been the focus of concern among those individuals investigating
environmental cancer risks include arsenic, asbestos, radon, agricultural
chemicals, and hazardous waste.
Some of the strongest evidence for a cancer risk associated with source-water
contamination involves arsenic. Epidemiologic studies from Taiwan have suggested
that arsenic in drinking-water poses substantial risks of liver, lung, bladder,
and kidney cancer as listed in Table 1 (1,2). Although toxicologic
studies do not provide unequivocal evidence of carcinogenicity (3),
occupational studies, as well as other epidemiologic studies, support the
findings of the Taiwanese studies(4). Estimates of attributable risk
based on the data in Table 1 suggest that an average level of arsenic 2.5
µg/l in drinking-water in the United States of causes approximately
3000 cases of cancer per year (4).

Although asbestos is a proven carcinogen, the attributable risks associated
with asbestos in drinking-water do not appear to be substantial. An early
study in California (5) suggested that there may be an elevation
in colorectal cancer risk associated with asbestos in drinking-water. It
appears that these findings are limited to situations in which naturally
occurring levels are high. A subsequent, more detailed study of asbestos
in source water, together with studies of asbestos leached from water distribution
systems, suggests that, when asbestos is present at levels commonly found
in drinking-water, it does not pose a major cancer risk (6,7).
Radon is also a known carcinogen; however, the evidence linking consumption
of radon-contaminated water to human cancer is weak (8). The relationship
between ionizing radiation and cancer is well understood. This information,
coupled with measured levels of radon in drinking-water, suggests that fewer
than 100 cases of cancer occur each year in the United States as a consequence
of consuming radon in drinking-water (9).
Farm runoff containing agricultural chemicals and manure may lead to
local or regional contamination of source waters with insecticides, fungicide,
rodenticides, herbicides, and fertilizers, which contain phosphorous and
nitrogen. Although some pesticides are carcinogens, drinking-water contamination
resulting from their agricultural application has not been directly associated
with cancer in epidemiologic studies. Emerging evidence, however, indicates
that fertilizers may pose cancer risks.
Studies in China among populations exposed to high levels of nitrates
in drinking-water have suggested links between nitrate contamination and
stomach and liver cancer (10). In these studies, the histology of
the gastric lesions has been linked to the level of nitrates in the water
(11) and cancer rates increased with the in vitro mutagenicity
of the drinking-water (12). Nitrates may act as carcinogens through
the formation of N-nitroso compounds (13). When human volunteers
were given proline, which is a secondary amine, those participants in areas
with higher levels of nitrate in their drinking-water had higher levels
of N-nitrosoproline in their urine than volunteers residing in places
with low nitrate levels in their drinking-water (14). Although an
epidemiological study in France failed to demonstrate an association between
nitrates in drinking-water and cancer (15), current evidence is sufficient
to warrant further study of this potential carcinogen.
Few examples of significant links between hazardous waste in drinking-water
and cancer have been reported. Elevated cancer risks are difficult to detect
because of the relatively low incidence of site-specific neoplasms and the
typically small size of exposed populations (16). An ecologic study
in New Jersey found weak evidence for a positive association between volatile
organic compounds in drinking-water and leukemia (17). In a national
ecologic study, Griffith et al. (18) found evidence of elevated cancer
rates in the vicinity of hazardous waste sites. Limitations on ecologic
data urge caution in the interpretation of such findings. Contamination
of wells associated with hazardous waste disposal in Woburn, Massachusetts,
was ultimately linked to elevations in their incidence of leukemia (19).
Although this investigation was arguably the most thorough study of this
kind, questions were raised about the magnitude of the risk (20).
There are numerous factors that make it difficult, if not impossible, to
estimate the attributable risks associated with hazardous wastes on a national
level, including the wide variety of chemicals present in hazardous waste
sites, the difficulties in assessing exposure, the obstacles to establishing
links between exposure and cancer even when links are present, the small
size of exposed populations, and the uncertainties concerning future risks.
Cancer Risks Associated with Water Treatment
Until this century, concerns about the cleanliness of drinking-water
focused almost exclusively on the presence or absence of pathogens. Ironically,
the chlorine used to reduce the risk of infectious disease may account for
a substantial portion of the cancer risk associated with drinking-water.
Chlorination of drinking-water played a central role in the reduction
in the mortality rates associated with waterborne pathogens. Water chlorination
was first introduced at the Jersey City Water Works in Boonton, New Jersey.
The relative ease of use of water chlorination, together with its potent
bactericidal action, lead to the rapid dissemination of this treatment technology
throughout the United States. Overshadowed by the clear benefits to public
health, the potential health risks associated with water chlorination received
little attention. This view is evident in an article heralding the opening
of the Boonton waterworks, which appeared on the back page of the New York
Times (21). The brief article claimed that, with this process, "any
municipal water supply can be made as pure as mountain spring water. Chlorination
destroys all animal and microbial life, leaving no trace of itself afterwards"
(21).
This statement represented the prevailing wisdom until about 20 years
ago when halogenated organic compounds, particularly chloroform, were identified
in chlorinated drinking-water (22). A subsequent survey of water
supplies showed that these compounds were common in water supplies throughout
the United States and that concentrations were far higher in treated surface
water than in treated groundwater (23). With these revelations came
a shift in the basis of our definition of cleanliness in drinking-water.
New concerns about cancer risks associated with chemical contamination from
chlorination by-products have given rise to 25 epidemiologic studies.
Table 2 summarizes the results of a metaanalysis of the cohort and case-control
studies that have been conducted to evaluate the association between consumption
of chlorinated drinking-water and cancer at various sites (24). For
each cancer site, the pooled results from available studies show elevations
in risk, and the risk estimates achieved statistical significance for bladder
and rectal cancer. Further analyses in this study suggested that risks increased
with increasing exposure and that improvements in exposure assessment yielded
higher estimates of risk. Confounding could conceivably explain the observed
pattern of association, but stratification into studies that adjusted or
did not adjust for confounders does not support such an assertion. Studies
that adjusted for population density, smoking, or occupation, did not demonstrate
a difference in relative risk estimates. Although it is still possible that
the pattern of associations could represent some systematic bias in the
available studies, no specific bias has emerged to explain the observed
results.

In summary, the available studies generally support the notion that by-products
of chlorination are associated with increased cancer risks. The precise
characterization of these risks is somewhat less clear. The broad category
of chlorination by-products includes many different compounds, and the carcinogens
among these compounds have not been clearly identified. Trihalomethanes
are the most prevalent compounds and, given the evidence suggesting that
they are animal carcinogens, have been the focus of research and regulation.
The chlorination by-products that have been specifically identified, however,
account for only about half of the bound chlorine in finished drinking-water.
Other compounds present in far smaller quantities may pose substantial cancer
risks by virtue of high potency (25).
The goal of precise characterization of the cancer risk posed by each
of the chlorination by-products will probably prove to be unrealistic. A
quantitative dose-response relationship has not been well described for
any individual compound, much less the entire complex mixture. The relative
contributions of different exposure pathways vary among the by-products
and have not been well characterized. Nonetheless, given the large number
of people who consume chlorinated surface water, the number of cases of
cancer potentially attributable to this exposure is substantial. The numbers
derived from the metaanalysis suggest that 5000 (95% CI=2000-7000) cases
of bladder cancer per year and 8000 cases of rectal cancer per year (95%
CI=200-14,000) may be associated with consumption of chlorinated drinking-water.
Although these figures do not provide a precise estimate of risk, the true
risk is probably within an order of magnitude of these values.
Since the publication of the meta-analysis, a number of other studies
have been completed. McGeehin et al. (26) found an elevated risk
for bladder cancer comparable in magnitude to the summary estimate of the
metaanalysis. Kuovaslo et al. (27) found a similar estimate of risk
for bladder cancer but did not find an elevated risk for rectal cancer.
Kantor (28), on the other hand, found a risk for rectal cancer similar
to that in the metaanalysis, but an increase in bladder cancer risk associated
with chlorination by-products was only observed among smokers. Including
these findings within the metaanalysis does not change its results. Nonetheless,
these apparent inconsistencies may reflect important differences in the
carcinogenicity of the exposures experienced among the various study populations.
The complex mixture of compounds that comprise chlorination by-products,
the multiple pathways of exposure to those compounds, and the potential
for synergy with diet and other exposures may well explain the apparent
inconsistencies that exist among the studies included in the metaanalysis.
To stop chlorination of drinking-water to eliminate the elevated cancer
risks from chlorination by-products would be foolhardy. Nonetheless, the
data provide strong evidence to support expanded efforts in research and
development of alternatives to chlorination for the disinfection of drinking-water.
Chlorination is particularly effective in preventing recontamination during
distribution. Alternatives must provide a similar level of protection. The
capacity of chemical disinfectants to kill pathogens generally reflects
their strong tendency to react with organic chemicals. The production of
by-products may, therefore, be inherent to the chemical disinfection of
drinking-water. For example, ozone produces aldehydes including formaldehyde
and bromate if the source waters contain bromine. These compounds pose a
cancer risk that is not yet fully quantified (29). Before the widespread
introduction of any new method of water treatment, the carcinogenicity of
by-products should be carefully evaluated.
Of the other compounds routinely added during the course of drinking-water
treatment, fiuoride has received the greatest scrutiny as a potential carcinogen.
The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) working group on
cancer risks from fluoridated drinking-water has concluded that available
ecologic studies have been consistent in finding no risk but stopped short
of suggesting that flouride was not carcinogenic because the studies were
all ecologic in design (30). One animal study (31) and one
case-control study (32) suggested that fluoridated water could be
linked with osteosarcoma, but these findings will require further confirmation
to be considered suggestive of causality. It appears that if flouride poses
any cancer risk, the attributable risk is relatively small.
Cancer Risks Associated with Drinking-water Distribution
The chemical components of pipes, joints, and fixtures can contaminate
drinking-water after treatment. A broad range of materials are used in these
systems. Pipes can be made from metals, primarily iron, copper and lead;
plastics, such as polyvinyl chloride and polyethylene; and concrete or asbestos/concrete
aggregates. These pipes may be plated or lined with a variety of compounds
including zinc, coal tar, asphalt, or vinyl. In addition, bacteria and organic
matter frequently coat the inside of pipes within the distribution systems
(33). All of these can be sources of new contamination, or they can
combine with chemicals already in the water to alter the health risks posed
by drinking-water. In 1979, a study of several medium-size water systems
demonstrated increases in mutagenicity of drinking-water after passage through
the distribution system (34). This study did not isolate specific
contaminants that might be responsible. Perhaps the most extensively studied
contaminant associated with drinking-water distribution is asbestos, which
can leach from asbestos-concrete pipes. The available research suggests
that asbestos from this source does not pose significant human cancer risks
(35-37). A study by Ashengrau et al. (38) showed an
increase in leukemia in association with trichlorethylene, which had leached
from a plastic liner used in concrete pipes. Other than the negative results
of the asbestos studies, the available research does not allow for strong
conclusions concerning the magnitude of cancer risks relating to contamination
from the distribution system. Further research is needed to identify and
quantify risks posed by contamination that occurs during drinking-water
distribution.
Emerging Concerns and Potential Cancer Risks
Water is among the most basic requirements for human survival, therefore,
emerging health threats related to drinking-water contamination demand careful
consideration. Although the identification of potential threats to human
health requires a certain degree of speculation, protection of public health
requires a willingness to occasionally err in the name of caution. Cancer
risks may emerge from the micropollutants and microbial contaminants that
can enter our drinking-water supply. Less direct effects may also pose risks.
One focus of current concerns about the potential for micropollutants
to cause cancer involves those compounds that mimic naturally occurring,
biologically active compounds. Biologically active micropollutants or endocrine
disrupters appear to have the ability to disturb normal intercellular communications.
For example, evidence from wildlife biologists, toxicologists, endocrinologists,
and epidemiologists demonstrate the potential for estrogenic effects of
environmental contaminants among humans (39,40). Metabolites
of DDT are estrogenic in vivo and have been associated with the development
of breast cancer in epidemiologic studies (41,42). Nonyl-phenol,
a common chemical surfactant, increases proliferation in breast tumor cell
cultures (43). The potential risks from drinking-water contaminants
acting through these mechanisms have not been evaluated.
Because of the complex mixture of contaminants, examining cancer risks
for each individual compound may not give a complete picture of cancer risks
associated with drinking-water. An alternative approach is to look at the
geographic distribution of neoplasms that might be associated with drinking-water.
These include cancer of the gastrointestinal tract and bladder cancer (i.e.,
neoplasms of the mucosal epithelium). Figure 1 provides maps showing clustering
of the incidence of site-specific neoplasms among the elderly. By ranking
the incidence of the neoplasms of the mucosal epithelium and combining those
ranks, we can see where this group of neoplasms might be elevated. A map
of the clustering of elevated cancer rates is shown in Figure 2. This map
indicates a significant elevation of these cancers in the northeastern United
States. To draw conclusions about the link between the geographic distribution
and drinking-water would, of course, be premature, but any effort to explain
this pattern should consider drinking-water contamination to be a possible
contributing factor.

Figure 1. Rank
sum map of incidence rates among persons 65 and older for cancers of the
esophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, and bladder from 1988 to 1989 (Based
on Appendix I).

Figure 2. Areas
of significant clustering of elevated rates of mucosal neoplasms. Significance
of Moran's I: p<0.0001.
Microbial contaminants also have carcinogenic potential. For example,
Schistosoma haematobium is waterborne, although it is not transmitted
by drinking-water, and has been linked to cancer of the urinary bladder
(44). Tumor promotion by algal toxins has already been suggested in literature
(45). Bacteria, parasites, and viruses appear sporadically in most
water supplies. The possibility that currently unidentified pathogens in
drinking-water can cause cancer should not be overlooked.
Water pollution may pose cancer risks other than the direct, toxic effects
of exposure to contaminated water. Causal links for the effects described
below have not been clearly established, but they are plausible and should
be considered in evaluating cancer risks from drinking-water.
Contamination of fishing grounds may pose both direct and indirect cancer
risks. Persistent, potentially carcinogenic compounds, such as polychlorinated
biphenyls, accumulate in the fatty tissues of fish (46). Fish consumption
is a major exposure pathway for these compounds. In addition, contamination
or destruction of spawning grounds may combine with over-fishing to deplete
natural fisheries. A dietary shift from fish to red meat, either because
of diminished fish stocks or fear of contaminants, could also increase diet-associated
cancer risks.
Under conditions of average temperature, humidity, and activity, the
human body loses and, therefore, must replace about 2.3 liters of water
each day. Two-thirds of this consumption is in the form of water or some
other beverage. Concerns about the health risks or taste of drinking-water
may induce those who consume tap water to shift to bottled water, or other
beverages. These beverages may include sweetened soft drinks and alcoholic
beverages, which can pose health risks greater than those associated with
drinking-water. In addition, the production and disposal of containers for
alternative beverages, including bottled water may lead to the release of
carcinogens.
Summary and Prevention Strategies
The cancer risks associated with the major contaminants of drinking-water
are listed in Table 3. The weight of the evidence suggests that chlorination
by-products pose substantial cancer risks that should be reduced. A growing
body of evidence supports the possibility that arsenic in drinking-water
may also carry unacceptable cancer risks. The cancer risks from radon and
asbestos in drinking-water are less substantial but may require remediation
where local conditions dictate. The available evidence does not support
assertions of cancer risks associated with fluoridation of drinking-water.

For most other compounds present in drinking-water, the attributable
cancer risks are not clear. Hazardous waste and pesticides may contaminate
waters locally and regionally, but the attributable cancer risk is difficult
to quantify. Nitrates are more widespread contaminants and more closely
linked to human cancer, but evidence is incomplete. Contamination during
drinking-water distribution may pose cancer risks, but the epidemiologic
evidence is extremely limited. Less conventional cancer risk factors, such
as biologically active micro pollutants and pathogens, only present the
possibility of risk at present but may emerge as important carcinogens in
the future.
Cancer-prevention strategies must focus on source-water purity. In particular,
strong source-water protection efforts provide a barrier to emerging cancer
risks that have not been identified or fully characterized. Furthermore,
failure to protect source water purity will necessitate more extensive water
treatment and, in most cases, heavier chlorination. Drinking-water treatment
technologies should be evaluated with extreme care and should be reevaluated
on a regular basis. The concept of continuous quality improvement should
be fully integrated into drinking-water treatment and should include ongoing
efforts to develop, evaluate, and implement new treatment technologies.
More cost-effective methods for monitoring drinking-water quality need to
be aggressively developed. Finally, drinking-water research should be a
priority. The consequences of a lack of vigilance with respect to emerging
threats in drinking-water were felt with devastating impact in Milwaukee,
Wisconsin, in 1993, when 400,000 people fell ill during a waterborne outbreak
of cryptosporidiosis (47). We should view this as a warning and an
opportunity for timely intervention to minimize health risks from drinking-water.
Appendix I
The map of cancer incidence rates for mucosal cancer was based on the
application of the method described below.
Assessing Cancer Incidence Rates
The incidence of cancer of the esophagus, stomach, colon, and urinary
bladder for persons over 64 years of age for the period 1988 through 1989
was estimated using Medicare hospital admissions data. The method used to
estimate cancer incidence with this database is reported elsewhere (1-3).
Briefly stated, all patients with a hospital admission for cancer were identified.
Patients with no admissions for the site specific cancer diagnosis in the
previous 4 years were considered to represent incident cases. From these,
age and sex adjusted, race-specific cancer rates were determined.
Localizing Disease Clusters
A disease cluster can be defined as a group of geographic areas that
are close to one another with disease rates that are similarly increased
or decreased relative to surrounding areas. This can be expressed quantitatively
for each analytic area i, as the weighted covariance of its disease
rate (xi) with the rates for the rest of the analytic
areas in the study region (xj) as given by
[1]
where the weights (wij) are the inverse of the distance
between population centroids of the analytic areas (4).
If the sizes of the study areas are not homogeneous across the study
regions, the weights corresponding to two adjacent areas will vary according
to the size of those areas. After modification to accommodate variations
in region size, the regional spatial autocorrelation coefficient (RSAC)
for analytic area i, Ri, becomes,
[2]
The mean and standard deviation of the distribution of RSAC can be reasonably
approximated by a normal distribution with an expectation of zero and a
standard deviation of O/(n-2)1/2 where O is the standard
deviation of xi and n is the number of analytic
areas.
The RSAC was calculated for each analytic area, and the theoretical mean
and standard deviation were used to test for significance. Analytic areas
that have significantly high RSACs were further classified into two groups
based on whether their disease rates were greater or less than the median
rate. Analytic areas with significant RSACs and disease rates greater than
the median were defined as analytic areas with clustering of elevated disease
rates or high clusters. These analytic areas were shaded black in the map.
Analytic areas with significant RSACs and disease rates less than the median
were defined as analytic areas with clustering of low disease rates or low
clusters. When the value of the RSAC was not significant, analytic areas
were not shaded and represented random spatial structures. Maps depicting
the results of these analyses (RSAC maps) were created to evaluate the use
of this method as a visual aid to localize areas that contain disease clusters.
These methods are described in detail elsewhere (1,4). The resulting
maps are shown in Figure Al.

Figure A1. Regional
spatial autocorrelation coefficient (RSAC) maps showing localized areas
containing statistically significant disease clusters. (A) Malignant
neoplasm of the esophagus. (B) Malignant neoplasm of the bladder.
(C) Malignant neoplasm of the colon. (D) Malignant neoplasm
of the stomach. Significance of Moran's I: p<0.0001.
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